Evidence Support Logic: A Guide for TESLA Users

Version 3.0 of Evidence Support Logic: A Guide for TESLA Users has been produced that reflects Quintessa’s improved understanding of the application of Evidence Support Logic (ESL) to complex decisions involving multiple and sometimes conflicting sources of evidence in addition to uncertainty.

TESLA guide

The document describes the ESL methodology; how to construct a logical hypothesis model; how to quantify confidence on the basis of gathered evidence; the method that ESL uses to propagate confidence up the hierarchical structure of the model to produce a solution; various ways of visualising data within the model; and finally provides a brief overview of the implementation of ESL within the TESLA software.

ESL has been used to help support decision making in several industries, in particular oil and gas, carbon capture and storage, and radioactive waste management. In the latter case, a particular focus has been on helping decisions on high-hazard legacy facilities, the management of which is subject to significant uncertainty. It has also been used to underpin portfolio selection for major investment decisions within these industries.