Sports Rating Algorithm Predicts FIFA World Cup 2026 Knockout Stages

26 Jun 2026

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is in full swing! Following an extensive, and in many ways surprising, group stage, only 32 teams remain. Now it’s time for Quintessa’s N-Estimates algorithm to turn its attention to the knockout stages.

Recently, predictions were presented for the group-stage matches at the FIFA World Cup 2026. All the teams’ ratings have been updated following those matches, and our predictions for the remaining rounds of the competition are below. Due to the fact that the Round of 32 starts immediately following the final group-stage matches, a full analysis of the algorithm’s performance will be presented following the conclusion of the tournament.

These predictions are displayed in the plots below. The x- and y-axes represent potential numbers of goals scored by the "home" and "away" teams respectively, with the home wins below the diagonal black dashed line and away wins above (home advantage is applied to the host nations Canada, Mexico and USA; for all other matches the designation of a “home” team is arbitrary). The colour scale represents the normalised probability of each result, with a high probability plotted in orange and a low probability in blue. The most likely result is highlighted by the black crossed-circle.

Predictions will be added when the competing teams become known.

June 28 2026, South Africa vs. Canada. Central normal time prediction: 1 - 1. Confidence range for goal difference (South Africa minus Canada): -2 to 4. — Predictions for the knockout stages. For each plot, the circles represent possible final scores, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour-coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The dashed black line indicates potential draws.

June 29 2026, Brazil vs. Japan. Central normal time prediction: 1 - 1. Confidence range for goal difference (Brazil minus Japan): -4 to 4. — Predictions for the knockout stages. For each plot, the circles represent possible final scores, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour-coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The dashed black line indicates potential draws.

After its initial publication, this article has been updated to add extra predictions as follows:

29^th June, 2026: Brazil vs Japan, Germany vs Paraguay, Netherlands vs Morocco.
30^th June, 2026: Ivory Coast vs Norway, France vs Sweden, Mexico vs Ecuador.
1^st July, 2026: England vs DR Congo, Belgium vs Senegal, USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina.
2^nd July, 2026: Spain vs Austria, Portugal vs Croatia, Switzerland vs Algeria.
3^rd July, 2026: Australia vs Egypt, Argentina vs Cape Verde, Colombia vs Ghana, Canada vs Morocco, Paraguay vs France, Brazil vs Norway, Mexico vs England.
6^th July, 2026: Portugal vs Spain, USA vs Belgium.
7^th July, 2026: Argentina vs Egypt, Switzerland vs Colombia, France vs Morocco.
10^th July, 2026: Spain vs Belgium, Norway vs England, Argentina vs Switzerland.
13^th July, 2026: France vs Spain, England vs Argentina.
16^th July, 2026: France vs England, Spain vs Argentina.

Quintessa is not affiliated in any way with FIFA. Its application of the N-estimates algorithm to the FIFA World Cup 2022 competition is an independent and non-commercial endeavour.