The FIFA World Cup 2026 is in full swing! Following an extensive, and in many ways surprising, group stage, only 32 teams remain. Now it’s time for Quintessa’s N-Estimates algorithm to turn its attention to the knockout stages.
Recently, predictions were presented for the group-stage matches at the FIFA World Cup 2026. All the teams’ ratings have been updated following those matches, and our predictions for the remaining rounds of the competition are below. Due to the fact that the Round of 32 starts immediately following the final group-stage matches, a full analysis of the algorithm’s performance will be presented following the conclusion of the tournament.
These predictions are displayed in the plots below. The x- and y-axes represent potential numbers of goals scored by the "home" and "away" teams respectively, with the home wins below the diagonal black dashed line and away wins above (home advantage is applied to the host nations Canada, Mexico and USA; for all other matches the designation of a “home” team is arbitrary). The colour scale represents the normalised probability of each result, with a high probability plotted in orange and a low probability in blue. The most likely result is highlighted by the black crossed-circle.
Predictions will be added when the competing teams become known.
Quintessa is not affiliated in any way with FIFA. Its application of the N-estimates algorithm to the FIFA World Cup 2022 competition is an independent and non-commercial endeavour.